Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Can We Get to 60?

The U.S. Senate is currently composed of 49 Republicans and 49 Democrats, with two Independents that caucus with the Democrats. This gives the Democrats a slight 51-49 majority. In order to get things done, and be able to stop a Republican filibuster, we need 60 Senate seats (okay, you've heard all this before). So, with 5 Republicans retiring, and 18 up for re-election, there is a possibility that this will happen. However, there are several crucial races that the Democrats must win to reach this magic number.

Here are all of the Senate seats up for election this year:

Current Senator: Lamar Alexander (R- Tennessee)
Who's running: Bob Tuke (D)
Prediction: Alexander.

Current Senator: Wayne Allard (R-Colorado) Allard is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.

Current Senator: John Barasso (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Nick Carter (D)
Prediction: Barasso.

Current Senator: Max Baucus (D- Montana)
Who's running: Bob Kelleher (R)
Prediction: Baucus.

Current Senator: Joe Biden (D- Delaware)
Who's running: Christine O'Donnell
Prediction: Biden. Even if (when) Obama takes the White House, and Biden becomes VP, a sucessor will be appointed by the governor.

Current Senator: Saxby Chambliss (R- Georgia)
Who's running: Jim Martin (D)
Prediction: Martin. This one is close, however, and probably leaning Republican, but a win will help the Democrats to reach the magic number.

Current Senator: Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Erik R. Fleming (D)
Prediction: Cochran.

Current Senator: Norm Coleman (R- Minnesota)
Who's running: Al Franken (D), and a lot of other people.
Prediction: Franken. This one is going to be a nailbiter. The polls have gone back and forth, but I am going to be optimistic, because we need this one.

Current Senator: Susan M. Collins (R- Maine)
Who's running: Tom Allen (D)
Prediction: Collins.

Current Senator: John Cornyn (R- Texas)
Who's running: Rick Noriega (D)
Prediction: Cornyn. As much as I would like to see Texas go blue, I think Cornyn's going to pull this one off.

Current Senator: Larry Craig (R- Idaho) Craig is retiring this year, due to his "wide stance."
Who's running: Jim Risch (R) and Larry LaRocco (D)
Prediction: Risch.

Current Senator: Elizabeth Dole (R- North Carolina)
Who's running: Kay Hagan (D)
Prediction: Hagan. This is going to be one to watch. The polls are showing what looks like a dead heat, and the media has reported that Elizabeth Dole is "running scared."

Current Senator: Pete V. Domenici (R - New Mexico) Domenici is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.

Current Senator: Dick Durbin (D- Illinois)
Who's running: Steve Sauerberg (R)
Prediction: Durbin.

Current Senator: Michael B. Enzi (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Chris Rothfuss (D)
Prediction: Enzi.

Current Senator: Lindsey Graham (R- South Carolina)
Who's running: Bob Conley (D)
Prediction: Graham.

Current Senator: Chuck Hagel (R- Nevada) Hagel is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Mike Johanns (R) and Scott Kleeb (D)
Prediction: Johanns.

Current Senator: Tom Harkin (D- Iowa)
Who's running: Christopher Reed (R)
Prediction: Harkin.

Current Senator: Jim Inhofe (R- Oklahoma)
Who's running: Andrew Rice (D)
Prediction: Inhofe.

Current Senator: Tim Johnson (D- South Dakota)
Who's running: Joel Dykstra (R)
Prediction: Johnson.

Current Senator: John Kerry (D- Massachusetts)
Who's running: Jeff Beatty (R)
Prediction: Kerry.

Current Senator: Mary Landrieu (D- Louisiana)
Who's running: John N. Kennedy (R)
Prediction: Landrieu. This one will be close, however. Kennedy was recruited by Karl Rove to run against Landrieu, so there's no telling what might happen.

Current Senator: Frank R. Lautenberg (D- New Jersey)
Who's running: Dick Zimmer (R)
Prediction: Lautenberg.

Current Senator: Carl Levin (D- Michigan)
Who's running: Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Prediction: Levin.

Current Senator: Mitch McConnell (R- Kentucky)
Who's running: Bruce Lunsford (D)
Prediction: McConnell. This one may be close, however.

Current Senator: Mark L. Pryor- (D- Arkansas)
Who's running: Rebekah Kennedy (Green Party)
Prediction: Pryor. Since there is no Republican running against Pryor, I'd say his odds are pretty good, even in Arkansas.

Current Senator: Jack Reed (D- Rhode Island)
Who's running: Robert Tingle (R)
Prediction: Reed.

Current Senator: Pat Roberts (R- Kansas)
Who's running: Jim Slattery (D)
Prediction: Roberts.

Current Senator: Jay Rockefeller (D- West Virginia)
Who's running: Jay Wolfe (R)
Prediction: Rockefeller.

Current Senator: Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)
Who's running: Vivian Davis Figures (D)
Prediction: Sessions.

Current Senator: Gordon H. Smith (R- Oregon)
Who's running: Jeff Merkley (D)
Prediction: Merkley. This is another one to watch, and will be close. Once again, I am going be be optimistic, and call it for the Democrats.

Current Senator: Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
Who's running: Mark Begich (D)
Prediction: Begich. With the whole being-convicted-of-a-felony thing going against him, there is no way that Stevens should win re-election. However, Democrats have blown it before...

Current Senator: John E. Sununu (R-New Hampshire)
Who's running: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Prediction: Shaheen. This is another close one, but Shaheen seems to have a slight advantage in recent polls.

Current Senator: John Warner- (R- Virginia) Warner is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Jim Gilmore (R) and Mark Warner (D)
Prediction: Mark Warner. It looks like the Republicans have given up on this one.

Current Senator: Roger Wicker (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Prediction: Musgrove. This one seems to be another toss-up, but as always, I am an eternal optimist.

If all of the Democratic incumbents keep their seats, which they should, and they gain the seats held by Stevens, Allard, Sununu, Domenici, and John Warner, they will have 56 seats (if I have done my math correctly). This number should be easily attainable, but there is also the possibility of winning the seats held by Coleman, Wicker, Dole, Smith, and possibly even Chambliss. This brings us to 61, which would is probably a little far-fetched, but would be nice. I'm not a political analyst, so check out these sites for more information:

Senate.gov
Wikipedia
CQ Politics
The Cook Political Report
The Rothenberg Political Report

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