Falls and McLennan County Election Results

Here is a summary of the election results for Falls County, where I live. Pay attention to the numbers in red; we'll get to them in a minute.

President
John McCain: 59.35%
Barack Obama: 39.62%
Margin: 19.73%

U.S. Senate
John Cornyn: 59.17%
Rick Noriega: 39.28%
Margin: 19.89%

U.S. Representative, District 31
John Carter: 59.75%
Brian P. Ruiz: 38.56
Margin: 21.19%

Railroad Commissioner
Michael Williams: 49.76%
Mark Thompson: 47.54%
Margin: 2.22%

Supreme Court, Chief Justice
Wallace Jefferson: 49.73%
Jim Jordan: 47.14%
Margin: 2.59%

Supreme Court, Place 7
Dale Wainwright: 48.64%
Sam Houston: 47.94%
Margin: 0.7%

Supreme Court, Place 8
Phil Johnson: 52.32%
Linda Reyna Yanez: 44.72%
Margin: 7.6%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
Tom Price: 50.26%
Susan Strawn: 47.06%
Margin: 3.2%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4
Paul Womack: 53.16%
J.R. Molina: 43.81%
Margin: 9.35%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9
Cathy Cochran: 81.91%
William Strange (Libertarian): 18.08%
Margin: 63.83%

State Representative, District 57
Jim Dunnam: 86.03%
Neill Snider (Libertarian): 13.96%
Margin: 72.07%

10th Court of Appeals, Place 2
Rex Davis: 53.50%
Richard Ferguson: 46.49%
Margin: 7.01%

Now for McLennan County.

President
John McCain: 60.19%
Barack Obama: 39.16%
Margin: 21.03%

U.S. Senate
John Cornyn: 61.31%
Rick Noriega: 37.31%
Margin: 24.00%

U.S. Representative, District 17
Rob Curnock: 39.96%
Chet Edwards: 59.29%
Margin: 19.33%

Railroad Commissioner
Michael Williams: 56.70%
Mark Thompson: 40.88%
Margin: 15.82%

Supreme Court, Chief Justice
Wallace Jefferson: 57.60%
Jim Jordan: 40.36%
Margin: 17.24%

Supreme Court, Place 7
Dale Wainwright: 55.25%
Sam Houston: 42.73%
Margin: 12.52%

Supreme Court, Place 8
Phil Johnson: 58.18%
Linda Reyna Yanez: 39.84%
Margin: 18.34%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3
Tom Price: 56.47%
Susan Strawn: 41.07%
Margin: 15.40%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4
Paul Womack: 58.26%
J.R. Molina: 39.64%
Margin: 18.62%

Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9
Cathy Cochran: 87.76%
William Strange (Libertarian): 12.23%
Margin: 75.53%

State Representative, District 56
Doc Anderson: 86.56
David Meine (Libertarian): 13.43%
Margin: 73.13

State Representative, District 57
Jim Dunnam: 92.11%
Neill Snider (Libertarian): 7.88%
Margin: 84.23%

10th Court of Appeals, Place 2
Rex Davis: 59.79%
Richard Ferguson: 40.20%
Margin: 19.59%

Ok, that was the boring part, I promise. I need to say this before I go any further: I am not a statistician or a political analyst by any means, but I need to do some math.

You see, there are some numbers that stick out to me. Alright, the average margin of victory of Republicans over Democrats in Falls County is 9.285%. In McLennan County, it's 18.19%. For these averages, I excluded races in which a Republican or Democrat was running against a Libertarian because, no offense to Libertarians, but these races were, and usually are, blowouts.

It is my opinion that the down-ballot results are a pretty good way to tell how a county is divided, as far as political parties go. The fact is, most voters are not all that educated on who is running for office, other than the folks at the top of the ticket. Furthermore, I believe that the most "unknown" races are judicial elections. After all, presidential candidates, senators, and representatives know that they must keep their constituents happy to either win office or remain there, so they stay pretty visible througout the campaign season.

So, let's look at the numbers for the judicial races. In both counties, Republicans won every race. In the three Supreme Court places, and the three places on the Court of Criminal Appeals, all six Republican incumbents remained in office. In Falls County the average margin of victory for Republicans in judicial races was 5.08%. In McLennan County, it was just about 17%.

Alright, I am going to try to make this make sense. I am not trying to say that all voters in McLennan or Falls County are uneducated, but I can tell you that there was virtually no campaigning done here for the Supreme Court and none at all for the Court of Criminal Appeals. So, unless you made a point to research the candidates, there would be no way to know much about them. So what's an uninformed voter to do? I can think of three things.

One, vote straight ticket. Two, vote for candidates that you have heard of somewhere before. Three, vote for those who have nice-sounding names.

I think that a little bit of all of these things happened. Falls County is the perfect example of this. We are a small, poor county that does not receive much attention from "outsiders." With so few voters, there's really no reason to campaign here; it wouldn't have a big enough impact. So, when I see election results from my county, I wonder why people voted the way they did.

My argument is that most voters voted straight-ticket along party lines, unless there is something about a candidate that a voter deems unacceptable. The races that I think are most indicative of the political alignment of Falls County were: Railroad Commissioner, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 7 of the Supreme Court, and Place 3 of the Supreme Court. These elections were all decided by margins between 0.7 and 3.2 percent, with Republicans holding a slight advantage.

What about the other judicial races? The Democrat lost Place 8 of the Supreme Court by 7.6 percentage points, and Place 4 of the Court of Criminal Appeals by 9.35 percentage points.

Why were these particular races determined by a larger margin than seemingly equivalent elections? Example: what voter knows the difference in candidates of Place 2 vs. Place 8 of the Supreme Court? My argument is that some voters voted not only along party lines, but along racial lines, as well. The candidates that lost by the larger margins were Linda Reyna Yanez and J.R. Molina. Molina was widely described as an unfit candidate, but Linda Yanez was praised and endorsed by major state newspapers.

Let's do some more math. In races (including for president, excluding Libertarians, in Falls County only) where there was no well-known minority or candidate with an "ethnic-sounding" name, the Republican margin of victory was 3.38%. This seems to indicate that the county is pretty well evenly divided along party lines. However, in the presidential election and in races where a candidate with a Hispanic name, the margin was 15.6%. For the record, even though this seems more apparent in Falls County, the margin for a race without a minority in McLennan County was 15.51% and, for races with a minority Democratic candidate, it was 20.51%.

Also for the record, I did not factor Michael Williams's, Wallace Jefferson's or Dale Wainwright's race into this. They are all black Republicans, but, as there was so little campaigning done around here, it is doubtful that voters knew this. Also, they were incumbents and easily won their races.

So, while I am definitely not a "numbers" person, I recognized a trend. I may be reading too much into this, but I have seen so much racism in the days since the elcetion that these results jumped out to me.

Is there an solution to this problem? Probably not. Until racial sterotypes and prejudice are eliminated, and people make it a point to become informed, I doubt that we will see voters voting solely on the issues. There will always those who vote based on the way a person's name sounds. In all fairness, it seems that Democratic judge Sam Houston received a modest boost in numbers, likely because of his name. On the other hand, it also appears that Susan Strawn lost by a larger number than some of the other judicial candidates. Was it maybe because people voted for the male candidate over the female? We'll probably never know.

In conclusion, though there is nothing official about these observations, it is a sad commentary on the state of racial relations in Texas. I'm not black, and I will never understand what it is like to be black, but I am saddened by the reaction that I have witnessed in Central Texas to Obama's election, and I will not stop trying to fix it. I keep harping on the race issue, but let me say this once and for all: racism didn't end with Obama's election. We may have made progress, but there is still a long way to go.

So you think you know who's running for president?

I picked up a copy of the League of Women Voters Guide to the ’08 General Election today. My first surprise was that there are some men in the League of Women Voters. That’s not really important, just interesting. Anyway, I always knew there were write-in candidates in presidential elections, but no one really pays that much attention to them. So, although, I have made up my mind (Go Obama!), I thought I would do some research on the write-ins and the Libertarian on the ticket. Here they are:

Bob Barr (Libertarian)

VP: Wayne Allyn Root

My understanding of the Libertarian Party is that they support minimal government and strong civil liberties. So they are kinda like socially liberal Republicans, or maybe fiscally conservative Democrats, or…something like that. So, when I’m reading about Bob Barr, this year’s Libertarian nominee, I’m wondering why he isn’t just a conservative Republican. This is the guy who was a leader in the Clinton impeachment. Oral sex could technically be considered a civil liberty, and yet, Barr led the way in trying to oust Clinton. He has also voted to outlaw medical marijuana, voted FOR the Patriot Act, FOR the Defense of Marriage Act, FOR the Iraq War, and FOR banning certain religious practices in the military. Most of these things he has come to regret. Here’s an interesting tidbit: Barr appeared in the movie Borat.

Ralph Nader (Independent/Independent-Ecology Party/Peace & Freedom Party/Natural Law Party)

VP: Matt Gonzales

Honestly, I really don’t have a strong opinion about Ralph Nader. I think the good and the bad cancel each other out. All of the “good” stuff that he advocates, alternative energy, conservation, safety in the workplace, disability rights, clean drinking water, women’s rights, and the list goes on, can’t help me get over the perception that he somehow stole the Presidency from the Democrats in 2000. I was way too young to get it then, but looking back, and thinking about how differently things might have been had Gore won Florida, makes me a little angry. I know every analyst says that Bush would have won anyway, but still…It seems that Ralph Nader is a good guy that stands up for those who often can’t stand up for themselves, but let’s hope that he doesn’t get too many of Obama’s votes...

Brian Moore (Socialist Party USA)

VP: Stewart Alexander

Before reading about this party, I wasn’t sure that Socialism was even a valid political party in the U.S. Basically, Brian Moore is antiwar, supports socialized medicine, boosting the employment rate, and providing housing for all citizens. Moore comes from a humanitarian background, working in the Peace Corps in his youth. The former Democrat has called for the impeachment of Bush and Cheney. The problems with Socialism include poorer quality healthcare, even if it is more affordable, and a drop in “morale” in workers. The argument is that if everyone is guaranteed their slice of the pie, why work for it? A classless society seems nice on paper, but it doesn’t really work. We do have a problem with the rich getting richer while the poor struggle, and Obama did use the phrase “spread the wealth around,” but he’s not a Socialist. Obama wants to stop giving tax breaks to the rich. In a Socialist society, there would be no rich at all. Even for a broke college student like me, I don’t think that putting an end to the American Dream is the answer.

Alan Keyes (Independent/American Independent Party/America’s Independent Party)

VP: Wiley Drake

Where to start? Keyes has run three times for president, in 1996, 2000, and 2008. Needless to say, he hasn’t won yet. He also ran for the U.S. Senate in Illinois, despite never having lived in the state, and despite criticizing Hillary Clinton for doing just about the same thing when she ran for the Senate as a New Yorker. He lost the Senate race, by a landslide, by an up-and-coming politician named…Barack Obama. The Obama-Keyes race got pretty ugly, according to Obama in The Audacity of Hope, so maybe Keyes is out for a little revenge in 08? But then again, maybe not. Anyway, dude’s a little bit crazy, and has seen his share of controversy in his political career. Finally, something that’s not relevant, only ironic: like all good conservatives, he has a lesbian daughter that he has reportedly disowned.

Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)

VP: Rosa Clemente

Cynthia McKinney takes a lot of interesting positions. To me, it seems that she has constantly teetered on the edge of insanity during her congressional career. For instance, she has proposed that details regarding the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. be made available to the public. Okay, this makes sense. People should be able to learn more about the death of a historical and inspirational figure…I can see that. Then, however, she goes through the same motions for Tupac Shakur. Maybe she was trying to make the point that we invest too much time worrying about celebrities, or maybe she was trying to suggest that Tupac isn’t dead. After all, new music from him surfaces all the time, but I just think that with all of the things we have going on, the war, the economy, whatever, don’t we have better things to worry about? She, like Brian Moore, has introduced articles to impeach Bush and Cheney, and she did the same for Condoleezza Rice.

Jonathan Allen (Independent/HeartQuake)

Can’t find too many specifics on this guy, other than that he is a businessman, who believes that his candidacy is a breath of fresh air from the broken two-party system that we currently have and that, if voters really want change, they should vote for him. I don’t think there is anything wrong with running for president just for the hell of it…unless you actually win. Then people have to listen to you stumble through speeches for eight long years wondering if all Texans are retarded, and watch an ill-conceived war unfold that never should have happened. Then I have a problem with it.

Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party)

VP: Darrell L. Castle

Without knowing anything about this guy, or the Constitution Party, I was thinking that someone who represents a party with the word “Constitution” in its name might have some good ideas. I was wrong. It seems that Baldwin is against most of the “good” things that we associate with our Constitution (remember when it was more than a “goddamned piece of paper?”). Here are some things and people that this candidate opposes:

• abortion
• women in the military
• Barack Obama
• Martin Luther King, Jr.
• Abraham Lincoln (according to Baldwin, he is one of the two worst presidents in history, alongside Woodrow Wilson.)

Okay, so he sounds like your average conservative. And a racist. But here are some more people that he is against:

• George W. Bush (too liberal)
• Dick Cheney
• John McCain
• Sarah Palin
• Jerry Falwell (doesn’t it seem like Falwell would be right up his alley?)
• Mike Huckabee.

So, what does he like? Apparently, racial profiling and the Confederacy. This guy sounds quite unpleasant…The more I read about him, the more I like Sarah Palin (gasp!) Oh, and he’s a Baptist minister. I wonder how many of his parishioners are convinced that they are going straight to hell?

Thaddeus Hill (Madisonian Federalist Party)

I’m not even sure this guy has a website, or a MySpace, or anything, but why not run for president anyway? I can almost hear the drunken conversation at the frat party now... "What the hell? It’ll be fun! And Madisonian Federalism sounds smart, so let’s go for it!!!" I wonder if someone has to do a shot everytime the economy is mentioned?

Some other “notable” candidates that are either on the ballot or are qualified write-ins in other states are:

Charles Jay (Boston Tea Party/Personal Choice Party)
Ran in 2004 with a female porn star, strongly advocates gambling. Although most of his campaign seems to be a joke, he is an advocate of getting young people involved in the political process. That’s respectable enough.

Jack Grimes (United Fascist Union)
I am hoping to God that this is meant to be satirical…Hopefully, if this guy was serious he could at least afford his own domain name.

Jonathon “The Impaler” Sharkey (Vampire, Witches, and Pagan Party)
This one’s pretty self-explanatory.

Gene Amondson (Prohibition Party)
I didn’t really even have to look this one up to know that I don’t like it. His website does have video of him being interviewed by Jon Stewart, which should be pretty funny, but, at least to me, prohibition is nothing to joke about.

Cris Ericson (Marijuana Party)
This is super-self-explanatory.

So, while I fully support Barack Obama, and encourage you to do the same, this is just to let you know that there are options. While they range from amusing to horrifying, isn’t is great that, as Americans, we are free to run for the highest political office in the land under almost any platform that we choose? I think that says a lot about us a nation. Also, no matter how stupid the rest of the world considers us, we should hold our heads high knowing that, at least this time, one of these idiots will (most likely) not be elected.


League of Women Voters
List of Independent, Third Party, and Write-In Candidates
And, of course, Wikipedia