Okay, this is old news, but I've been busy. Mark Begich has won the Alaska Senate race. On Thursday, Ted Stevens said goodbye to his lengthy career in the Senate. Every other senator that spoke gave him glowing praise, as well. In fact, many of his colleagues who had rallied for his resignation gave very moving tributes to Stevens.
Anyway, Mark Begich, a relatively conservative Democrat, will take over for Alaska. This gives the Democrats (including Lieberman) a 58-42 advantage in the Senate. This means that we still need Franken to win the recount in Minnesota and Martin to win the runoff in Georgia.
As of right now, it appears that Franken has cut into Coleman's lead slightly. However, the end appears to be nowhere in sight, as counting is not expected to be finished and reported until December 5th. Then litigation begins. This one may not be decided until next year.
In Georgia, both candidates are still trying to raise money and jockey for position. The runoff will be hold on December 2, with turnout expected to be much lower than that of the general election. It is arguable whether this favors Chambliss or Martin. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
The positive here is that Begich pulled off the victory in Alaska. Besides the obvious Democratic win, there are other advantages to this. Had Stevens been elected, and then subsequently expelled from the Senate, there was talk of Sarah Palin taking over his seat. Needless to say, that could have been disastrous. Entertaining, but disastrous.
Showing posts with label Ted Stevens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ted Stevens. Show all posts
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Three Senate Races Still Unresolved
As of today, there are still three Senate races that are undecided.
The most surprising undecided race, to me at least, in the Alaska Senate seat. For a while, it looked like Ted Stevens was going to pull it off. Now, however, Mark Begich is leading by a slim, but growing margin. According to Alaska's Secretary of State's Division of Elections, Begich has 138959 votes and Stevens has 137937. As of yesterday, Begich was up by 1022. Counting will resume on Tuesday, and it seems that the precincts which have not been counted are likely to go for Begich. Hopefully, we will know one way or the other then.
In Minnesota, a recount is looking inevitable. Norm Coleman, with 1211565 votes, holds a 206 vote lead over Al Franken, who has 1211359, according to Minnesota's Secretary of State. For right now, Coleman and his supporters are claiming victory, but, with the number of contested votes that are likely to be re-examined, things could change. Unfortunately, this one will probably not have a final result until the middle of December.
Georgia's race between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin is headed for a run-off. Out of 3,752,579 votes in the general election, Chambliss got 1,867,090, Martin got 1,757,419, the Libertarian candidate got 128,002, and write-in candidates got a whopping 68. Since neither Chambliss nor Martin got a majority of the vote, Georgia voters will have to try it again on December 2. Chambliss beat Martin by 109,671 votes in the general election. Hypothetically, if everyone who voted in the general election came out for the run-off, and almost all of the third-party voters voted this time for Jim Martin, he would pull it off. However, I think turnout will be significantly lower for this election, and I'm afraid that many of those who show up will be the Chambliss faithful. Obama gave a lot of down-ballot races a huge boost, so if Obama voters don't show up for Martin, I don't think he has much of a chance. We shall see, however. Check out Jim Martin's official site for ways to help.
If the Democrats take all three of these seats, we will reach the magic number of 60. With wins by Mark Udall in Colorado, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Mark Warner in Virginia, and Tom Udall in New Mexico, the Democrats hold 57 seats, counting Lieberman, which is another story in itself. Depending on how these races turn out, and how the Lieberman issue is dealt with, the Democrats may still be looking at a 60- seat majority when the new Senate comes to order.
The most surprising undecided race, to me at least, in the Alaska Senate seat. For a while, it looked like Ted Stevens was going to pull it off. Now, however, Mark Begich is leading by a slim, but growing margin. According to Alaska's Secretary of State's Division of Elections, Begich has 138959 votes and Stevens has 137937. As of yesterday, Begich was up by 1022. Counting will resume on Tuesday, and it seems that the precincts which have not been counted are likely to go for Begich. Hopefully, we will know one way or the other then.
In Minnesota, a recount is looking inevitable. Norm Coleman, with 1211565 votes, holds a 206 vote lead over Al Franken, who has 1211359, according to Minnesota's Secretary of State. For right now, Coleman and his supporters are claiming victory, but, with the number of contested votes that are likely to be re-examined, things could change. Unfortunately, this one will probably not have a final result until the middle of December.
Georgia's race between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin is headed for a run-off. Out of 3,752,579 votes in the general election, Chambliss got 1,867,090, Martin got 1,757,419, the Libertarian candidate got 128,002, and write-in candidates got a whopping 68. Since neither Chambliss nor Martin got a majority of the vote, Georgia voters will have to try it again on December 2. Chambliss beat Martin by 109,671 votes in the general election. Hypothetically, if everyone who voted in the general election came out for the run-off, and almost all of the third-party voters voted this time for Jim Martin, he would pull it off. However, I think turnout will be significantly lower for this election, and I'm afraid that many of those who show up will be the Chambliss faithful. Obama gave a lot of down-ballot races a huge boost, so if Obama voters don't show up for Martin, I don't think he has much of a chance. We shall see, however. Check out Jim Martin's official site for ways to help.
If the Democrats take all three of these seats, we will reach the magic number of 60. With wins by Mark Udall in Colorado, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Mark Warner in Virginia, and Tom Udall in New Mexico, the Democrats hold 57 seats, counting Lieberman, which is another story in itself. Depending on how these races turn out, and how the Lieberman issue is dealt with, the Democrats may still be looking at a 60- seat majority when the new Senate comes to order.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Can We Get to 60?
The U.S. Senate is currently composed of 49 Republicans and 49 Democrats, with two Independents that caucus with the Democrats. This gives the Democrats a slight 51-49 majority. In order to get things done, and be able to stop a Republican filibuster, we need 60 Senate seats (okay, you've heard all this before). So, with 5 Republicans retiring, and 18 up for re-election, there is a possibility that this will happen. However, there are several crucial races that the Democrats must win to reach this magic number.
Here are all of the Senate seats up for election this year:
Current Senator: Lamar Alexander (R- Tennessee)
Who's running: Bob Tuke (D)
Prediction: Alexander.
Current Senator: Wayne Allard (R-Colorado) Allard is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.
Current Senator: John Barasso (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Nick Carter (D)
Prediction: Barasso.
Current Senator: Max Baucus (D- Montana)
Who's running: Bob Kelleher (R)
Prediction: Baucus.
Current Senator: Joe Biden (D- Delaware)
Who's running: Christine O'Donnell
Prediction: Biden. Even if (when) Obama takes the White House, and Biden becomes VP, a sucessor will be appointed by the governor.
Current Senator: Saxby Chambliss (R- Georgia)
Who's running: Jim Martin (D)
Prediction: Martin. This one is close, however, and probably leaning Republican, but a win will help the Democrats to reach the magic number.
Current Senator: Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Erik R. Fleming (D)
Prediction: Cochran.
Current Senator: Norm Coleman (R- Minnesota)
Who's running: Al Franken (D), and a lot of other people.
Prediction: Franken. This one is going to be a nailbiter. The polls have gone back and forth, but I am going to be optimistic, because we need this one.
Current Senator: Susan M. Collins (R- Maine)
Who's running: Tom Allen (D)
Prediction: Collins.
Current Senator: John Cornyn (R- Texas)
Who's running: Rick Noriega (D)
Prediction: Cornyn. As much as I would like to see Texas go blue, I think Cornyn's going to pull this one off.
Current Senator: Larry Craig (R- Idaho) Craig is retiring this year, due to his "wide stance."
Who's running: Jim Risch (R) and Larry LaRocco (D)
Prediction: Risch.
Current Senator: Elizabeth Dole (R- North Carolina)
Who's running: Kay Hagan (D)
Prediction: Hagan. This is going to be one to watch. The polls are showing what looks like a dead heat, and the media has reported that Elizabeth Dole is "running scared."
Current Senator: Pete V. Domenici (R - New Mexico) Domenici is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.
Current Senator: Dick Durbin (D- Illinois)
Who's running: Steve Sauerberg (R)
Prediction: Durbin.
Current Senator: Michael B. Enzi (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Chris Rothfuss (D)
Prediction: Enzi.
Current Senator: Lindsey Graham (R- South Carolina)
Who's running: Bob Conley (D)
Prediction: Graham.
Current Senator: Chuck Hagel (R- Nevada) Hagel is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Mike Johanns (R) and Scott Kleeb (D)
Prediction: Johanns.
Current Senator: Tom Harkin (D- Iowa)
Who's running: Christopher Reed (R)
Prediction: Harkin.
Current Senator: Jim Inhofe (R- Oklahoma)
Who's running: Andrew Rice (D)
Prediction: Inhofe.
Current Senator: Tim Johnson (D- South Dakota)
Who's running: Joel Dykstra (R)
Prediction: Johnson.
Current Senator: John Kerry (D- Massachusetts)
Who's running: Jeff Beatty (R)
Prediction: Kerry.
Current Senator: Mary Landrieu (D- Louisiana)
Who's running: John N. Kennedy (R)
Prediction: Landrieu. This one will be close, however. Kennedy was recruited by Karl Rove to run against Landrieu, so there's no telling what might happen.
Current Senator: Frank R. Lautenberg (D- New Jersey)
Who's running: Dick Zimmer (R)
Prediction: Lautenberg.
Current Senator: Carl Levin (D- Michigan)
Who's running: Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Prediction: Levin.
Current Senator: Mitch McConnell (R- Kentucky)
Who's running: Bruce Lunsford (D)
Prediction: McConnell. This one may be close, however.
Current Senator: Mark L. Pryor- (D- Arkansas)
Who's running: Rebekah Kennedy (Green Party)
Prediction: Pryor. Since there is no Republican running against Pryor, I'd say his odds are pretty good, even in Arkansas.
Current Senator: Jack Reed (D- Rhode Island)
Who's running: Robert Tingle (R)
Prediction: Reed.
Current Senator: Pat Roberts (R- Kansas)
Who's running: Jim Slattery (D)
Prediction: Roberts.
Current Senator: Jay Rockefeller (D- West Virginia)
Who's running: Jay Wolfe (R)
Prediction: Rockefeller.
Current Senator: Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)
Who's running: Vivian Davis Figures (D)
Prediction: Sessions.
Current Senator: Gordon H. Smith (R- Oregon)
Who's running: Jeff Merkley (D)
Prediction: Merkley. This is another one to watch, and will be close. Once again, I am going be be optimistic, and call it for the Democrats.
Current Senator: Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
Who's running: Mark Begich (D)
Prediction: Begich. With the whole being-convicted-of-a-felony thing going against him, there is no way that Stevens should win re-election. However, Democrats have blown it before...
Current Senator: John E. Sununu (R-New Hampshire)
Who's running: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Prediction: Shaheen. This is another close one, but Shaheen seems to have a slight advantage in recent polls.
Current Senator: John Warner- (R- Virginia) Warner is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Jim Gilmore (R) and Mark Warner (D)
Prediction: Mark Warner. It looks like the Republicans have given up on this one.
Current Senator: Roger Wicker (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Prediction: Musgrove. This one seems to be another toss-up, but as always, I am an eternal optimist.
If all of the Democratic incumbents keep their seats, which they should, and they gain the seats held by Stevens, Allard, Sununu, Domenici, and John Warner, they will have 56 seats (if I have done my math correctly). This number should be easily attainable, but there is also the possibility of winning the seats held by Coleman, Wicker, Dole, Smith, and possibly even Chambliss. This brings us to 61, which would is probably a little far-fetched, but would be nice. I'm not a political analyst, so check out these sites for more information:
Senate.gov
Wikipedia
CQ Politics
The Cook Political Report
The Rothenberg Political Report
Here are all of the Senate seats up for election this year:
Current Senator: Lamar Alexander (R- Tennessee)
Who's running: Bob Tuke (D)
Prediction: Alexander.
Current Senator: Wayne Allard (R-Colorado) Allard is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.
Current Senator: John Barasso (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Nick Carter (D)
Prediction: Barasso.
Current Senator: Max Baucus (D- Montana)
Who's running: Bob Kelleher (R)
Prediction: Baucus.
Current Senator: Joe Biden (D- Delaware)
Who's running: Christine O'Donnell
Prediction: Biden. Even if (when) Obama takes the White House, and Biden becomes VP, a sucessor will be appointed by the governor.
Current Senator: Saxby Chambliss (R- Georgia)
Who's running: Jim Martin (D)
Prediction: Martin. This one is close, however, and probably leaning Republican, but a win will help the Democrats to reach the magic number.
Current Senator: Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Erik R. Fleming (D)
Prediction: Cochran.
Current Senator: Norm Coleman (R- Minnesota)
Who's running: Al Franken (D), and a lot of other people.
Prediction: Franken. This one is going to be a nailbiter. The polls have gone back and forth, but I am going to be optimistic, because we need this one.
Current Senator: Susan M. Collins (R- Maine)
Who's running: Tom Allen (D)
Prediction: Collins.
Current Senator: John Cornyn (R- Texas)
Who's running: Rick Noriega (D)
Prediction: Cornyn. As much as I would like to see Texas go blue, I think Cornyn's going to pull this one off.
Current Senator: Larry Craig (R- Idaho) Craig is retiring this year, due to his "wide stance."
Who's running: Jim Risch (R) and Larry LaRocco (D)
Prediction: Risch.
Current Senator: Elizabeth Dole (R- North Carolina)
Who's running: Kay Hagan (D)
Prediction: Hagan. This is going to be one to watch. The polls are showing what looks like a dead heat, and the media has reported that Elizabeth Dole is "running scared."
Current Senator: Pete V. Domenici (R - New Mexico) Domenici is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D)
Prediction: Udall.
Current Senator: Dick Durbin (D- Illinois)
Who's running: Steve Sauerberg (R)
Prediction: Durbin.
Current Senator: Michael B. Enzi (R- Wyoming)
Who's running: Chris Rothfuss (D)
Prediction: Enzi.
Current Senator: Lindsey Graham (R- South Carolina)
Who's running: Bob Conley (D)
Prediction: Graham.
Current Senator: Chuck Hagel (R- Nevada) Hagel is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Mike Johanns (R) and Scott Kleeb (D)
Prediction: Johanns.
Current Senator: Tom Harkin (D- Iowa)
Who's running: Christopher Reed (R)
Prediction: Harkin.
Current Senator: Jim Inhofe (R- Oklahoma)
Who's running: Andrew Rice (D)
Prediction: Inhofe.
Current Senator: Tim Johnson (D- South Dakota)
Who's running: Joel Dykstra (R)
Prediction: Johnson.
Current Senator: John Kerry (D- Massachusetts)
Who's running: Jeff Beatty (R)
Prediction: Kerry.
Current Senator: Mary Landrieu (D- Louisiana)
Who's running: John N. Kennedy (R)
Prediction: Landrieu. This one will be close, however. Kennedy was recruited by Karl Rove to run against Landrieu, so there's no telling what might happen.
Current Senator: Frank R. Lautenberg (D- New Jersey)
Who's running: Dick Zimmer (R)
Prediction: Lautenberg.
Current Senator: Carl Levin (D- Michigan)
Who's running: Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Prediction: Levin.
Current Senator: Mitch McConnell (R- Kentucky)
Who's running: Bruce Lunsford (D)
Prediction: McConnell. This one may be close, however.
Current Senator: Mark L. Pryor- (D- Arkansas)
Who's running: Rebekah Kennedy (Green Party)
Prediction: Pryor. Since there is no Republican running against Pryor, I'd say his odds are pretty good, even in Arkansas.
Current Senator: Jack Reed (D- Rhode Island)
Who's running: Robert Tingle (R)
Prediction: Reed.
Current Senator: Pat Roberts (R- Kansas)
Who's running: Jim Slattery (D)
Prediction: Roberts.
Current Senator: Jay Rockefeller (D- West Virginia)
Who's running: Jay Wolfe (R)
Prediction: Rockefeller.
Current Senator: Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)
Who's running: Vivian Davis Figures (D)
Prediction: Sessions.
Current Senator: Gordon H. Smith (R- Oregon)
Who's running: Jeff Merkley (D)
Prediction: Merkley. This is another one to watch, and will be close. Once again, I am going be be optimistic, and call it for the Democrats.
Current Senator: Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
Who's running: Mark Begich (D)
Prediction: Begich. With the whole being-convicted-of-a-felony thing going against him, there is no way that Stevens should win re-election. However, Democrats have blown it before...
Current Senator: John E. Sununu (R-New Hampshire)
Who's running: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Prediction: Shaheen. This is another close one, but Shaheen seems to have a slight advantage in recent polls.
Current Senator: John Warner- (R- Virginia) Warner is retiring after this term.
Who's running: Jim Gilmore (R) and Mark Warner (D)
Prediction: Mark Warner. It looks like the Republicans have given up on this one.
Current Senator: Roger Wicker (R- Mississippi)
Who's running: Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Prediction: Musgrove. This one seems to be another toss-up, but as always, I am an eternal optimist.
If all of the Democratic incumbents keep their seats, which they should, and they gain the seats held by Stevens, Allard, Sununu, Domenici, and John Warner, they will have 56 seats (if I have done my math correctly). This number should be easily attainable, but there is also the possibility of winning the seats held by Coleman, Wicker, Dole, Smith, and possibly even Chambliss. This brings us to 61, which would is probably a little far-fetched, but would be nice. I'm not a political analyst, so check out these sites for more information:
Senate.gov
Wikipedia
CQ Politics
The Cook Political Report
The Rothenberg Political Report
Monday, October 27, 2008
Ted Stevens Found Guilty
Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens was found guilty on seven counts of corruption Monday. He says he'll appeal, maintains his innocence, blah, blah, blah.
What does this mean?
For starters, the odds that he will win re-election have...let's just say, decreased. A felony conviction, even with the political climate of the last eight years is generally frowned upon. I will be writing more about the Senate races, along with the significance of the magic number 60, in the next day or so. However, one thing that bothers me is that Stevens is even allowed to continue to be a U.S. Senator.
Convicted felons are not allowed to vote. It should follow, logically, that they wouldn't be allowed to hold elected office. Impeached presidents aren't. However, unless a two-thirds majority votes to expel a senator convicted of a felony, he or she is allowed to keep their seat.
This being said, I don't think Ted Stevens will win re-election. But, if he does, let this be a lesson to you, kiddies: It doesn't matter if you commit a felony, you can still be a U.S. senator.
What does this mean?
For starters, the odds that he will win re-election have...let's just say, decreased. A felony conviction, even with the political climate of the last eight years is generally frowned upon. I will be writing more about the Senate races, along with the significance of the magic number 60, in the next day or so. However, one thing that bothers me is that Stevens is even allowed to continue to be a U.S. Senator.
Convicted felons are not allowed to vote. It should follow, logically, that they wouldn't be allowed to hold elected office. Impeached presidents aren't. However, unless a two-thirds majority votes to expel a senator convicted of a felony, he or she is allowed to keep their seat.
This being said, I don't think Ted Stevens will win re-election. But, if he does, let this be a lesson to you, kiddies: It doesn't matter if you commit a felony, you can still be a U.S. senator.
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